Volatility

Several years ago,I watched a TV program arguing the ever changing world. It had used some data to prove that the world was changing faster than ever. It thought the world would alter even faster,by a mathematical function,in the near future.

Nowadays we can prove that theory in stock markets. The world is bounded altogether now.With crippling effect everywhere,one single stock market would be infected by a news happening far far away,and thus triggers reaction by near-by markets,forms a chain reaction and eventually leads to massive selloffs.

Due to the state-of-the-art technology,information can flow back and forth around the globe in real time,which can multiply the already contagious market fear and make people to overreact.

That is volatility. For us,volatity would not fade away,but would get to strengthen in this information age. 

Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

The Gulf of Mexico oil spill incident has all the world's attention. It has been developing since,maybe,two months ago,and has showed no signs of stop.

The oil may have seeped into streams,which would circulate around the Atlantic and carry it all the way to Canadian East,and probably western Europe as well.

Since the day of one of BP's many rigs exploded on the sea,it was doomed to be a disaster. Now that this incident is known to be caused from one mile below water surface,it's more complicated and diffulcult to rescue.

Everyday,when news broadcsats the oil relentlessly coming out from the underwater well,one just hopes it could be capped or collected as soon as possible,but no one actually knows how to do that even they're genius scientists,for now.

Cycle

Sometimes I felt that life is a couple of cycles repeating itself again and again. Take 25 years as a cycle,I feel like I have experienced a full one and started expecting another one.
I've saw children walking in their schools' uniforms on the streets like I did before,I've saw stores closed and opened in the same place,and I've saw ups and downs of stock markets and witnessed them retreating to where they began to rise.

Could I seize a cycle to make a fortune in my life? By using the experiences I've learned from the past?

On low interest rate policy

Another interesting piece of news: The longterm low interest rate policy keeps the cash in banks always at high levels. Thus drives banks to lend money in a reckless way but vulnerable to a volatile market. Consumer banking,credit cards and house loans,were the main fields banks flocked to prosper,though those sectors had been too crowded with providers.

Newly emerging businesses need capital,but due to the low interest rate environment,banks cannot afford to risk lending money to those venturing enterprises and ideas,which may bear bigger possibilities of default,and may probably be tomorrow's competative edges.

Banks barely profit from a sheer difference between the lending rate and depositing rate in Taiwan,causing them fear to lend money to corporations venturing to develope new technologies. And that has harmed the island,making local industries incapable of adjusting to the R&D-led knowledge economy,and has been threw behind by other nations elsewhere,like Korea.

To be or not to be,it is a question. To abandon a low interest rate policy and instead implement a relative high interest rate one is something we can think about and will be a topic expected to be hotly debated.

Activated

Sometimes I recall the places I've been to,especially for the places abroad.

I spent only short terms of time there,many of them are far away from Taiwan,and I can't help but think of them from time to time.

I thought of Frankfurt today.There were a few images poping out in my brain which featured Frankfurt's street sights.

It was vivid,I can still recall how I got lost in the night in Frankfurt and how I got out of it.

There's a Chinese saying goes"Read tens of thounds of books and travel tens of thounds of miles." You travel to prove what you've learned and improve what you haven't known. You read to know what you haven't know and travel to prove it.

That's the beauty of learning. You assume you have got the idea,you don't until you are actually got involved in it. When you're invoved,you dig more to find out what have confused you and afterwards answer yourself.

If I have never been to Frankfurt,I wouldn't know the difference between Paris and it,and I wouldn't try to figurt out the reason and thus lose an opportunity to get a closer tight with that city.

So it's activated. Amazingly lured by the machanism of learning and human curiosity. So is the beauty of learning! 

Yummy!

Here in Taiwan,we have lots of Chinese cuisines. Deep in roots,many people inherit great skills in making tasty foods from their families. Noodles are several delicious Chinese foods worth talking about.

I like noodles,especialy for Beef Noodle and Wonton Noodle. Since Beef Noodle is kind of expensive to try (the price per bowl is between 2 to 4 US dollars,normally),I would instead order Wonton Noodle.

Wonton,looking like another kind of dumling,is great to eat when you have it with noodles. With the smell of meat inside it and the steam coming out from the soup,it's very enjoyable to have it. It's the essence of Chinese food.

Alas! Good Wontons are less seen these days among eateries along streets. Good Wontons are often hand-made,and they're gradually replaced with cheap ones made by machines. So it's common that one may order and have a bowl of Wonton Noodle which is without "soul". And thus having it with a pity.

Euro and Germany

The Euro has been plagued with sovereign debt problems. It is said that only few countries have the deep pockets to save the Euro. France and Germany are among the list,especially Germany.

Germen economy was weak a decade ago,it was once called an european patient. Now it looks like Germany is the key nation which can keep the european monetary union function well.

But the central european economic hub is reluctant to bail out other states,the Merkel administration acted very carefully about the funding issue. Some high-ranking officials even spoke against any bailout plans for Greece,including Kanzlerin Merkel herself.

Is Germany overreacted and too careful about the crisis? And thus causing the deprecition of Euro?

I have no idea about the scoop. But according to german research institutes,Greece might have held something back,that is the Greek government deficit might be bigger than what is known by the public.

In this crisis,the world is informed again about the european monetary integration and has reviewed the role Germany plays in it.

Last week's economist had a special report on Germany,it unveiled many reforms Germans had been thruogh,and what were left after them.

Take a look at the picture below.(Courtesy:Economist.com)

















I'm surprised by the GDP per person are so high in some areas .
Although Germany has problems to fusion the east and west parts of it,overall its economy is healthier than elsewhere in Europe.

Germany enjoys a trade surplus,it has the second or third largest common account surplus in the world mostly by exporting their products to the neighboring countries. Even in this european financial crisis,Germany might have beneficted more than others - by depreciation of Euro,it will have a bigger margin.

It's time for Germans to think about the future of Europe,and that's their future,too.