Looking Back

Today is the last day of 2010. As usual,it is a year full of turbulance. But in business,we've saw an overall boom in economy. From asset prices to stock markets,it is a year of recovery.

Many companies have posted highest profits ever,breaking their own history.
It's good to see the market recover from recession,and hope this momentum would last for the upcoming year.

ECFA

ECFA,the abbreviation of an accord called Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement,a FTA-like treaty between Taiwan and China.

Recently people talk about it a lot. After the Special Municipalities Election,one can regard the voters have okayed the Ma Administration's general policy,so it's worthy to look more into ECFA. It is one of the renowned reconciliation policies toward China,alongside with the direct flights across the Taiwan Straits and great lifts for Chinese tourists to Taiwan.

ECFA is an economic treaty that asks for both sides to open markets. By cutting customs tax to zero in several years,goods like chemicals,steel products,fishes and fruits can be sold to another market without tax,increasing the competativeness of the exporting nation.

There are some differences in the criterias that each side steps back and meets another in the half way. For instance,Taiwan lowers the taxes to zero for Chinese chemicals and some raw meterials. China would favor steel products,bicycle parts and machine parts with zero taxation. Generally,China is seen to "yield" Taiwan. Not only with more items imported from the counterpart granting zero tax than that of Taiwan,China also allows vital Taiwanese industries like Steel Making,Machinery and Financial Services to prosper in the middle kingdom.

But one might think of why. Why,would China do such a favor to Taiwan? And what would happen if China pull back from the treaty,when Taiwanese have got so used to it and have enjoyed the benefits so well of it ?

It's right to take hold of the momentum of a booming Chinese economy,that's why voters in this 2010 election chose the ruling party to govern three municipalities,compared with only two of the opposition party. But it's also why voters cast more ballots to the opposition by the sum of all electoral districts,for fear of an overly reliance to China.

About the trip to America

In Northwestern University,Chicago,I saw a breath-taking scene that I would never see in Taiwan.

The N.U. had an inner lake inside the campus,and outside of it was Lake Michigan. Between them was a levee. I was so moved when standing on the levee,watching the borderless Lake Michigan,or maybe the inner sea of America. I thought Lake Michigan was probably bigger than Taiwan,or pretty much the same size.

That was the best part of the journey. I went to New York and Boston,and revisited Chicago and L.A. I had saw what I expected to see,but the time there in N.U. surprised me the most. I thought I found peace there.

I thought I found peace there.

Oh,the railroad trip from New York to Boston on Amtrak was also great. Autumn foliage was everywhere during the Conneticut part,the train even took me to come so close to the Atlantic Sea. It was a coastline route.  

Typhoon Fanapi

Typhoon Fanapi stroke Taiwan around the Sep. 18th and 19th weekend. It was a fast-growing typhoon,which formed itself from a tropical warm mass of air to a storm scaled as a middle strong typhoon,only within a couple of days.

It went directly from the Pacific,which is at the right side of Taiwan,westward to hit the Central Mountain ridgets and made its way into the mainland China territories. All of Taiwan was in its reaches especially for the 19th day,every TV station in the island ran typhoon alerts as headlines hour after hour,informing everyone to prevend any possible disaster caused by lack of attention.

Luckily,most parts of Taiwan stayed almost intact,without any damage. But Kaohsiung,where I live,and Pintung and Taitung were the hardest hit places. Lots of houses,cars,lands and roads were soaked in water. My home was no exception,here are some pictures of how we got hit by the water:

 We only suffered a bit from the flood,with the scooters in water and a car without harm thanks to its elevated design of the bottom. But unlike us, lots of residents in the places mentioned above witnessed their cars and houses(the first floors) all in water,I couldn't imagine how bad they felt.

Stardom

One day I watched the Major League Baseball games on TV,and soon realized the faces like Derek Jeter,Jorge Posada and some other big names had been in the baseball career for a long time.

Sure they were with talents when they were young. Scouts had good comments on them. They practiced and played hard on the field. But they would not be household names if they drop out in the halfway. They've worked their way up and achieved their stardoms.

I began thinking about my own career. I should stick to the curent one and take it as my life career. If I choose to be cross-country and swith the to another lane,it might take me to a new territory and need more time to build any sense of that industry.

No venture,no gain. I'm already in one good business,is there anything worth to try out for ?

America,in Autumn!

I will travel to the U.S. in about two and a half months. I've got my itineraries settled down. The first stop is New York,for five days,then Boston,Chicago and L.A.,each for two days.

I look forward to be traveling in New York City,to see so many famous tourist spots like the Empire State building,Central Park,the Broadway,Manhattan,and of course,the Yankee Stadium.

After New York,I'll take an Amtrak train to Boston,the schedule in the Beantown may be tight,so I can't squanter any moment but hustle to explore the cultural city of Northeast America. Harvard and Charles River are must-sees,they have been broght about from time to time in movies related to Boston.

Chicago,the Windy city,was where I had my first American getaway. Soon I'll revisit it again,and go to the places I missed last time,like the Northwestern University in Evanston. Graping a ticket and enjoying myself at Wrigley Field is also nice,if the Cubs could make it again to the playoffs when I am there at the bottom of September.

Last,Los Angeles,will be my gateway home. I'll get my suite case stuffed with souvenirs and gifts,like vitamins,purchased there. The prices were good when I was looking for pills for health last time. So I think I'll find bargains there again.

So is the plan for my Autumn trip to America. I hope I can meet some friends there,too.For I will be joyful to talk to them again and know all goes well for them. 

Volatility

Several years ago,I watched a TV program arguing the ever changing world. It had used some data to prove that the world was changing faster than ever. It thought the world would alter even faster,by a mathematical function,in the near future.

Nowadays we can prove that theory in stock markets. The world is bounded altogether now.With crippling effect everywhere,one single stock market would be infected by a news happening far far away,and thus triggers reaction by near-by markets,forms a chain reaction and eventually leads to massive selloffs.

Due to the state-of-the-art technology,information can flow back and forth around the globe in real time,which can multiply the already contagious market fear and make people to overreact.

That is volatility. For us,volatity would not fade away,but would get to strengthen in this information age. 

Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

The Gulf of Mexico oil spill incident has all the world's attention. It has been developing since,maybe,two months ago,and has showed no signs of stop.

The oil may have seeped into streams,which would circulate around the Atlantic and carry it all the way to Canadian East,and probably western Europe as well.

Since the day of one of BP's many rigs exploded on the sea,it was doomed to be a disaster. Now that this incident is known to be caused from one mile below water surface,it's more complicated and diffulcult to rescue.

Everyday,when news broadcsats the oil relentlessly coming out from the underwater well,one just hopes it could be capped or collected as soon as possible,but no one actually knows how to do that even they're genius scientists,for now.

Cycle

Sometimes I felt that life is a couple of cycles repeating itself again and again. Take 25 years as a cycle,I feel like I have experienced a full one and started expecting another one.
I've saw children walking in their schools' uniforms on the streets like I did before,I've saw stores closed and opened in the same place,and I've saw ups and downs of stock markets and witnessed them retreating to where they began to rise.

Could I seize a cycle to make a fortune in my life? By using the experiences I've learned from the past?

On low interest rate policy

Another interesting piece of news: The longterm low interest rate policy keeps the cash in banks always at high levels. Thus drives banks to lend money in a reckless way but vulnerable to a volatile market. Consumer banking,credit cards and house loans,were the main fields banks flocked to prosper,though those sectors had been too crowded with providers.

Newly emerging businesses need capital,but due to the low interest rate environment,banks cannot afford to risk lending money to those venturing enterprises and ideas,which may bear bigger possibilities of default,and may probably be tomorrow's competative edges.

Banks barely profit from a sheer difference between the lending rate and depositing rate in Taiwan,causing them fear to lend money to corporations venturing to develope new technologies. And that has harmed the island,making local industries incapable of adjusting to the R&D-led knowledge economy,and has been threw behind by other nations elsewhere,like Korea.

To be or not to be,it is a question. To abandon a low interest rate policy and instead implement a relative high interest rate one is something we can think about and will be a topic expected to be hotly debated.

Activated

Sometimes I recall the places I've been to,especially for the places abroad.

I spent only short terms of time there,many of them are far away from Taiwan,and I can't help but think of them from time to time.

I thought of Frankfurt today.There were a few images poping out in my brain which featured Frankfurt's street sights.

It was vivid,I can still recall how I got lost in the night in Frankfurt and how I got out of it.

There's a Chinese saying goes"Read tens of thounds of books and travel tens of thounds of miles." You travel to prove what you've learned and improve what you haven't known. You read to know what you haven't know and travel to prove it.

That's the beauty of learning. You assume you have got the idea,you don't until you are actually got involved in it. When you're invoved,you dig more to find out what have confused you and afterwards answer yourself.

If I have never been to Frankfurt,I wouldn't know the difference between Paris and it,and I wouldn't try to figurt out the reason and thus lose an opportunity to get a closer tight with that city.

So it's activated. Amazingly lured by the machanism of learning and human curiosity. So is the beauty of learning! 

Yummy!

Here in Taiwan,we have lots of Chinese cuisines. Deep in roots,many people inherit great skills in making tasty foods from their families. Noodles are several delicious Chinese foods worth talking about.

I like noodles,especialy for Beef Noodle and Wonton Noodle. Since Beef Noodle is kind of expensive to try (the price per bowl is between 2 to 4 US dollars,normally),I would instead order Wonton Noodle.

Wonton,looking like another kind of dumling,is great to eat when you have it with noodles. With the smell of meat inside it and the steam coming out from the soup,it's very enjoyable to have it. It's the essence of Chinese food.

Alas! Good Wontons are less seen these days among eateries along streets. Good Wontons are often hand-made,and they're gradually replaced with cheap ones made by machines. So it's common that one may order and have a bowl of Wonton Noodle which is without "soul". And thus having it with a pity.

Euro and Germany

The Euro has been plagued with sovereign debt problems. It is said that only few countries have the deep pockets to save the Euro. France and Germany are among the list,especially Germany.

Germen economy was weak a decade ago,it was once called an european patient. Now it looks like Germany is the key nation which can keep the european monetary union function well.

But the central european economic hub is reluctant to bail out other states,the Merkel administration acted very carefully about the funding issue. Some high-ranking officials even spoke against any bailout plans for Greece,including Kanzlerin Merkel herself.

Is Germany overreacted and too careful about the crisis? And thus causing the deprecition of Euro?

I have no idea about the scoop. But according to german research institutes,Greece might have held something back,that is the Greek government deficit might be bigger than what is known by the public.

In this crisis,the world is informed again about the european monetary integration and has reviewed the role Germany plays in it.

Last week's economist had a special report on Germany,it unveiled many reforms Germans had been thruogh,and what were left after them.

Take a look at the picture below.(Courtesy:Economist.com)

















I'm surprised by the GDP per person are so high in some areas .
Although Germany has problems to fusion the east and west parts of it,overall its economy is healthier than elsewhere in Europe.

Germany enjoys a trade surplus,it has the second or third largest common account surplus in the world mostly by exporting their products to the neighboring countries. Even in this european financial crisis,Germany might have beneficted more than others - by depreciation of Euro,it will have a bigger margin.

It's time for Germans to think about the future of Europe,and that's their future,too.

Japan,a long way to recovery

I saw an artical featuring the fall of Japan's economy. It was a brilliant cover story by a local news magazine here in Taiwan.

In that artical,the main reason that caused the fall of Japan's once powerful economic strength was the sharp appreciation of its currency.
With the appreciation,the export power had been hurt. The prosperities in stock market and real estate were soon broken.

Not long ago,there was another local news magazine putting out articals about Taiwan's currency policy. They argued Taiwanese central banker shall let the New Taiwan Dollar increase its value,rather than constant depreciation,given the alteration of international economics and local industry outlook.

That is an issue we can keep an eye on for many decades. Monetary policy is not just about economics,it's also related to politics.

Right now,I think we're lucky to have a wise central banker,who has done his job beautifully for many years.

Paris

Ernest Hemingway said that if you stay in Paris for a while when you're young,Paris would be a moveable feast for you. Is that true?

Yes,I think that's true! And he was probably damn right to comment that.

I stayed in Paris for six days during the Chinese New Year holidays. There,in Paris,I saw a different world I had never experienced before.
Everything was big in Paris. The Louvre,the Invalidee,the Versailles and the
river Seine. I should have used the phrase for the U.S.,'cause that's how people depict America. "Even the ants are bigger in America."

But I rather gave that kind of phrases to Paris. Having been so ignorant to Paris,France and Europe,I only had few images in my mind about the city and the nation. When I was near the end of my trip,I realized that France,letting us take Paris as a projection of its national wealth and power,was quite a highly civilized country with high-end technology and uniqe appreciation of art. France has far more than coffee and wine.

People there were nice. Not arrogant at all. Though they barely spoke English,they were willing to help me.

I came to know on the last day that there were so many celebrities,artists,statesmen,etc. shared this city one time or the other in their lives. As a tourist,a traveler,I had my footprints set in Paris as well,and I might some day proudly say that I was there when someone great was there too.

Biennvenu a Paris!

Abraham Lincoln

(Photo:dr-belair.com)
Several months ago,I read a book written for high school students. It was a Abraham Lincoln biography.

The book was in a prosaic and chronicle pattern,easy for readers to get a whole view of Lincoln's life,and also rich in content when you wanted to discover more. Through this book,I realized Lincoln's greatness and his contrbution to the U.S.

 Lincoln was great because he stopped the possible breakdown of the federation,and he contributed indirectly to the super power status the U.S. has enjoyed to date. Some historians argued why America didn't separate into pieces,as nations respectively,like continental Europe. The answer might be Lincoln. He saved America as a whole,and made people know a separate America was no longer available.

Lincoln fought the civil war because he had to. He was reluctant to open fire to his fellow citizens. And,by the book,throughout the war Lincoln was not always confident that he would finally win. That is the vital detail we should keep in mind. He was an ordinary person,just like you and me. He fought the war by his will,and finally perseverance paid off and led him to the victory.

Lincoln was vividly portrayed in the book. He saved the Union,he wanted his countrymen to be treated equally no matter what colors their skins were,and he has been regarded one of the greatest presidents Americans admired as a result.

Body of Lies

I've watched this movie over and over again for these days. It's worth of watching. I don't know if it is used as a teaching material for diplomats,but it's so genius that everyone gets to know how secret agents operate their tasks. And how dangerous they are!

The screenplay is great. Though one would doubt why would a pro agent (Ferris,starring Leonardo DiCaprio) fall in love with a local girl and get caught by people using her as the bait.

And,in the late of the movie,agent Ferris is taken into a car by several other cars producing a sandstorm to cover and make the satellite surveillance completely useless. How come Ferris doesn't carry a GPS gadget to identify himself ?

All in all,this is a good story told by a good director and acted by good actors. Director Ridley Scott,the director of the epic Gladiator,has talents to deliver a great amount of information to audience piece by piece. And Russel Crowe,one of Ridley Scott's favorite actors,plays his role vividly and hatefully as a CIA Near East division head.

While I enjoy this movie,I also wonder what if some other people,unlike diplomats,have watched and studied it? Maybe terrorists,maybe would-be terrorists?
But with so many talents in Tinseltown,people might not worry about this. Screenplay writers would come up with greater plots to outdo this one.

The Lisbon Treaty

Before going to Europe,I'm interested in the process of European integration. Not long ago,the Lisbon Treaty was ratified by the EU members. What is it?
What's the impact when it comes into force?

I didn't have too much time to study the treaty sentence by sentence,so I read over the "fast facts"of the treaty,and came up with my take of it.

Well,for the people who are doubtful about the idea "the world is flat" will be assured that they're not wrong. And for the Eurosceptics,the treaty proves again that "all the european states linking together as a country functions well" doesn't work.

The Lisbon Treaty,coming after the failed European Constitution,bears so much pressure to keep the EU members all together and better enough to rival its counterparts,like the United States and China.  So it allows the EU members to keep their rights and prevend the EU regulations and laws to intervene in their sovereignty.

Some member states have the final say on the issues like taxation,immigration and abortion policies. While keeping highly flexible,the functioning of the Union under the Lisbon Treaty might still stay where it is today. Without a single policy and consensus,one might expect more treaties and amendments to come.

European Union is an acclaimed and succesful regional integration example. Euro states have been working on staying as a whole from a single market to a single,well,federation. But after four decades of hard work,the EU and its people still need more time to get their plans come alive.